A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
